fashion Archives - US Plus Trading

on January 12, 2017

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REVIEW: Agenda Long Beach Trade Show, January 5-6, 2017

The view from the JanSport lounge at Agenda Long Beach

Before you could say “2017?”, Agenda Long Beach got the apparel trade show year off to a cracking start last Thursday at the conveniently close Long Beach Convention Center.

I will not rehash the whys and wherefores of Agenda. I have covered the development and expansion of the show in my twice yearly reviews since 2011. You can read the previous reviews here.

The rain (yes, rain in Southern California) did not stop the first day being well attended and energetic. There was nothing new in the general layout of the show. The Berrics (skate), Enclave (street and men’s contemporary) and Footwear sections to the left. The Point (surf), The Woods (contemporary and lifestyle apparel and accessories), Pin & Patch (personalized accessories), The Essentials (grooming and personal goods), WMNS (women’s contemporary apparel and accessories), Resource (industry providers) to the right.

The one marked difference from previous shows was the very noticeable drop-off in foot traffic and activity on Day 2. For consistency of comparison, I prefer to walk the show at about the same time both days, usually during the busiest times of late morning to early-mid afternoon. Being only a two day show, both days are usually bustling. The weather was no worse on Friday, in fact a little better. It may have been an anomaly.

The brands and booths that caught my eye were:

Pray for the edgy streetwear of Ignored Prayers

Ignored Prayers leveraged this display for some brand awareness in the Enclave section. The edgy streetwear is only available on their website at Supreme and Union.

San Pedro’s own Ascot

San Pedro label Ascot was showing high quality, locally made caps along side Bates leather jackets. Ascot also does tees and sweats.

Sevag Kazanci, co-founder of Parks Project

I first met Sevag Kazanci, the co-founder of Parks Project when he spoke on a panel at one of the Molina Entrepreneurship Series events last year. Parks Project holds the license to produce apparel for the US National Park Service. They are currently servicing gift stores in 28 national parks with a 10 year goals of supplying 100 parks.

These are not your typical gift store tees, caps, sweats and beanies. The graphics, fabrics and styling compare very favorably to anything you can buy in a contemporary boutique. They are selling in boutiques in Japan. I will be investigating the Australian market for them.

By the way, the top 3 selling parks’ apparel? #1 – Joshua Tree, #2 – Yosemite, #3 – Muir Woods.

JanSport Diamond collection

Over the past few years, I have been tracking the expansion of the range of JanSport backpacks, bags and accessories. JanSport has been an old fav of mine for years. Growing up, they were the first brand of backpacks I was aware of (that is after the army surplus backpacks that were hip in the late 70’s).

JanSport has been around since 1967 with functional, outdoor gear that is well priced and durable. Over recent seasons, they have been stepping up their design, styling and fabrics into the lifestyle and contemporary segments. The Wayward Collection has done very well. They have just introduced the resort-inspired Diamond Collection and camouflage influenced Ranger Collection. Neither are as yet available on their website.

Noral Collections – Made in LA

Noral Collections specializes in high quality crystal and gemstone bracelets, rings, necklaces and key rings, all handmade in LA. The workmanship is first rate. The price points are very reasonable.

Tiger Mist from Melbourne

I caught up with Yvette Collis, the livewire Brand Manager of Melbourne’s own, Tiger Mist.

I first met Yvette and the owners of the label, Stevie and Alana Pallister at PoolTradeShow in 2013. Yvette has continued to successfully sell the range directly to US retailers without using a US distributor or agent by targeting the right trade shows in the US and working directly with buyers. The brand is doing very well for Nasty Gals, Revolve, Dolls Kill and is Forever 21’s #1 selling branded label.

Online sales have continued to grow strongly on the back of a successful social media campaign focused on Instagram and Snapchat.

Olyss sweaters out of New York at Joken Style Showroom

Joken Style Showroom had a very solid Day 1 meeting with TJ Maxx, Quiksilver and small local boutiques, including Topaz Sun from Manhattan Beach, New Jack City in Huntington Beach and Long Beach’s Prism Boutique.

paul brindley consults recently brokered a national sales representation deal between Joken Style and the popular Australian bag collection, The Redletter Club. RLC will be launching in the US in the Joken Style showroom at next week’s Los Angeles Market Week.

Respected heritage label, Kennington

As usual at Agenda, I stopped by Kennington. Not many brands can say that they have been in business for 60 years. Kennington is one of those rare few. I was very impressed with the look of the prints and colors.

I will be working with Kennington to secure an Australian distribution deal for the coming Spring/Summer 2017 season.

Where to from here?

Next week is Los Angeles Market Week. Next month are the Las Vegas trade shows for Fall/Winter 2017. Between now and Vegas, we will have a new president and a new administration with a Republican majority in Congress.

I think we can all remember the consequences of the last Republican political straight flush. We very nearly lost the economy completely.

Over the coming weeks, it will be very interesting to see and hear how the industry reacts to our new circumstances. The second half of 2016 was very encouraging. Lets see if the rhetoric of the campaign starts to become reality. I have a feeling it might trump whatever gains we have made.

Paul Brindley
Founder & Principal Adviser
paul brindley consults

Posted by Paul Brindley

on July 06, 2016

in Blog, Fashion

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REVIEW: Agenda Long Beach Trade Show, June 29-30, 2016

It was all systems go at the unofficial launch of the Spring 2017 season round of apparel trade shows last Wednesday and Thursday with Agenda Long Beach at the Long Beach Convention Center.

The busiest period of the fashion week and trade show year will continue through the end of October with major stops in Miami, Las Vegas, New York and Los Angeles.

The original street, skate and surf focus of Agenda has expanded and diversified steadily over the past 5 years to include contemporary and progressive men’s and women’s brands in Agenda WMNS and The Woods sections, personalized accessories in Pin & Patch, grooming and personal items in The Essentials, and industry service providers in Agenda Resource. Read more about each section here.

The broadening mix of brands at Agenda brings together industry veterans, today’s apparel movers and shakers, buyers of all stripes, sales agents from across the spectrum, millennials chugging beers at 10AM, and kids on skateboards. It is a fascinating cross section of the industry. There are bodies in constant motion in every direction to the accompaniment of chatter and laughter, DJ-ed beats, and the clatter and scrape of skateboards. The bars and food trucks inside are never short of customers.

The sights and sounds create a frenetic energy that gives Agenda Long Beach a party feel. But there is still plenty of business done. Most of the brands and sales agents that I spoke to were very happy with the amount and quality of the buyers seen.

Some eyecatchers for me were:

The famous LA heritage brand, Kennington

Kennington has been doing it right for 60 years. They sport their famous prints and colors in a contemporary, slim fit body for their younger customer and their time tested regular fit in long and short sleeves. I particularly like the Flume Short in three colors and the jackets in three bodies – Bomber, Garage and Safari – that they are doing for Spring 2017.

Gypsies & Debutantes at Joken Style booth

Eme Mizioch of Joken Style Showroom was super excited by the response to Gypsies & Debutantes‘ bags. The bags are beautifully constructed with paneling made from re-purposed traditional women’s blouses from South America. They had seen buyers from Diane’s Beachwear, Fab Fit Fun and Crossroads.

Giving Bracelets benefits Court Appointed Special Advocates (CASA) for Children

The soft leather, metal and electro-plated crystal adjustable bracelets and necklaces from Giving Bracelets are unisex, comfortable and empowering to wear (I haven’t taken mine off). 10% of the proceeds go to support Giving Bracelets benefits Court Appointed Special Advocates (CASA) for Children. Wholesale prices start at $13.50 with no minimums.

The Wayward Collection by JanSport catching the higher end, natural look

I was impressed by the new Wayward Collection from JanSport. JanSport has captured a natural eco-look with subtle colors and prints to appeal to the higher end of the market.

They were two very strong days at Agenda. The activity bodes well for the upcoming wholesale selling season. I am looking forward to the reports from shows in New York and Miami in July. I will be blogging from Las Vegas in August. I am expecting Vegas to be the strongest show since the 2008 financial crisis.

Paul Brindley
paul brindley consults

Posted by Paul Brindley

on May 26, 2016

in Blog, Fashion

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It’s the End of the Department Store as We Know It? It Better Be

When was the last time you shopped for clothes or accessories at a department store? And when I say department store, I mean nothing short of a Macy’s. Let’s not count the popular secondary department stores like Marshalls or Ross or the department stores’ own secondaries like Nordstrom Rack, Macy’s Backstage and Saks Fifth Avenue OFF 5th.

If or when you did last grace the departments, did you linger and walk the floors like the good old days? Or was it a smash and grab raid like you were shopping online? Could you live without department stores in your shopping life? After all, you have never had more buying options for apparel or just about anything for that matter.

I ask these questions because you may have to consider life with fewer or even (well down the road, if ever) no department stores. The business press has been reporting the on the struggles of the US department stores for some time now. Recent poor financial results have increased the pressure on some big names.

The Business of Fashion just posted an excellent article on the subject, Why American Department Stores Are ‘Broken’. Macy’s saw a 5.6% drop in year on year sales for the first fiscal quarter of 2016; Saks Fifth Avenue was down 5.7 percent, and the usually invulnerable Nordstrom dipped 1.7%.

Why are they broken?

Retail in general is struggling despite all the usual economic parameters for strong retail sales currently set in ‘Go’ mode. The Business of Fashion outlines the reasons in another excellent article, “Why Aren’t Americans Shopping“. I couldn’t put it any better, so I won’t except to say that we live in a very different retail world post the 2008 Great Recession (aka “The GFC” or “The Global Financial Crisis”, as it is known elsewhere).

Department stores haven’t changed they way they do business in practice or look and feel for years. Walk into any department store today and it looks like it did 20 years ago. Just buying up the next popular online site or simply posting more content on social media or having sales staff working off iPads and or jazzing up your advertising will not cut it in this millennial world. Its all about customer engagement. Even the edgiest marketers are still figuring out how to effectively influence millennials. I do like “The 5 Ways to Sell to Millenials” on Inc.com:

1. Authenticity matters most

2. Realize you’ll be fact-checked–almost before you finish.

3. Make your point, and then shut up.

4. Make your message an emotional story.

5. TV? What’s TV?

Department stores are way behind the game.

I heard an industry type on NPR last week state that many in the department store upper echelons have been in the system for their whole careers and that they may little or no feel for the new world of retailing. I’m not sure about this take. Surely someone involved in the running of a premium department store like Saks or Nordstrom or Bloomingdales is staying abreast of all the selling, promotional and demographic trends and needs. If not, then there will be some hefty pink slips making the rounds.

Competition is fierce, very fierce. Marshalls and Ross are as busy as ever with both recording healthy increases of year on year sales for Q1 2016. We all know that traditional bricks and mortar apparel retailers have been losing business to the online sellers for a long time now. The scope and pace of the e-commerce effect is broadening and quickening daily. But its now not only the Amazons of this new brave new world that are throwing shade. Retailers now need to contend with popular re-commerce sites like thredUP which are essentially online thrift stores that allow you return good for free within a certain amount of days, and fashion share sites like Rent the Runway where you can rent clothes and send them back.

Where to from here for the premium department store chains?

I think we will see a significant physical and influential downsizing of the department store presence in the market while they attempt to polish their customer engagement by returning to what set department stores apart years ago – the destination shopping experience.

The department store experience should include:

good quality restaurants and coffee shops pitched to the spending power of their demographic. E.g. Macy’s would have a cafeteria, Nordstrom would have something more upmarket. I would give them a mid-century modern look to hark back to the 50’s movies where people often seemed to be eating and drinking at the department store before or after a spot of shopping.
personal shoppers, spa services, and parties for regular customers
pop-up shops spotlighting new, innovative products.
more store-in-stores run by the brands themselves along the European department store model.
friendly and attentive sales staff
easy and efficient return policies
more bounce and pep to the look and feel of the stores. They should get ultra modern or mid century or something out of the ordinary.
and most importantly when it comes to apparel, more focus on the products that people are wearing now and not what they will be wearing in 3 months. I agree with the Business of Fashion piece that calls for enough of “the “early” retail deliveries, which are increasingly out of sync with the physical seasons and result in markdowns during what should be peak selling periods, hurting full-price sales potential. “As it stands, Pre-Fall clothes are delivered from April through July, while Autumn/Winter clothes are delivered from July through October,” BoF reported in March. “Heavier items like outerwear and knits are often deeply discounted in January when cold weather finally hits.”

I am sure it seems inconceivable to many that we could exist in a retail environment without department stores. They have been the big fish of the retail world for 150 years.

Fortune.com ran an article in January titled ominously, How American Department Stores Are Fighting Extinction. They concurred with many of the points that I suggested above.

Do I think a mass extinction is imminent? No. But things are going to have to change and change quickly. Department stores better figure out how stay connected and relevant or they will be left way behind in this ever evolving, ever accelerating retail environment and may not catch up.

Paul Brindley
Principal Adviser
paul brindley consults

Posted by Paul Brindley

on March 25, 2016

in Blog, Fashion

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REVIEW: LA Fashion Market Week Fall16, March 14-17, 2016

Where it all happens

Last Tuesday saw me strolling down Los Angeles Street in the downtown Los Angeles Fashion District heading for the Fall 2016 Los Angeles Fashion Market Week.

What is Market Week? Its a four day affair of seasonal wholesale buying in the showrooms and trade shows of the main wholesale centers: the California Market Center, the New Mart, the Cooper Design Space, and other venues in the Fashion District.

Five times a year, US and international wholesale buyers roam the showrooms and booth shows determined to stay within their budgets as they buy what’s hot, pass on what’s not, and perhaps gamble on what’s next. Most buyers who want to stay in business or keep their jobs have a good idea what is working for their customers, and what to take a punt on to freshen up their floors.

By the time I get to the crossroads of contemporary apparel wholesaling at Los Angeles and 9th, I can usually tell how the day is progressing. The telltale signs are everywhere. What is the foot traffic like on the sidewalks and filing in and out of the buildings? How many people are sitting in the cafes? How many are waiting at the traffic signals to get across to the adjacent buildings? How full are the parking lots?

First impressions were that this was going to be the average Fall market week that it turned out to be. You can muse over the full California Apparel News review of the week.

Fall market week in LA is the second busiest behind the October Spring edition. Despite Los Angeles having the largest apparel infrastructure and being the second largest city and metro area in the US, the LA market week is not as consequential as you would think. By the time buyers have been to the massive Las Vegas trade shows and the marquee New York showcases, LA is left to mainly service west coast and some international buyers.

Last week, I focused my time on walking the temporary booth trade shows – Brand Assembly in the Cooper Design Space, Designers and Agents in the New Mart, and the accessories showcase Coeur and the activewear and lifestyle grouping ALT in the California Market Center.

Brand Assembly Emerging Designers Showcase

Brand Assembly has expanded to 125 brands and now takes up the entire bright, white 13th floor event space of the Cooper Design Space. The carefully curated premier contemporary women’s showcase, “gathers designers with similar price points while avoiding direct brand competition”, as it was explained to me by co-founder, Hilary France. There is a well written profile of Hilary on Fashionista.com.

“Due to exhibitor demand, we could be much bigger but we are committed to a selective, curated approach that optimizes the Brand Assembly experience for our brands and buyers”, professed the other co-founder, Alex Repola.

We Are Kindred from one of my favorites cities, Sydney at the busy SYDNY showroom booth

I was delighted to see We Are Kindred hanging beautifully in the busy The SYNDY Showroom booth. I introduced the label to The SYDNY. The SYDNY does an excellent job representing Australian designers and brands in the US market.

Brand Assembly was by far the busiest space of the week. Maybe buyers are taking the advice of one of the exhibitor brands, Monrow who have declared that “Brand Assembly Los Angeles is an incredibly well-curated assortment of brands & categories. If I was a boutique, I would only shop there.”

The advanced contemporary Designers and Agents on the 3rd floor event space at the New Mart was close to full but a bit light on buyer traffic when I was there. D&A is known as an independent, international show that attracts brands from the US, Europe and Japan. D&A New York is a much larger, busier show.

Ben De Luca of Brooklyn Hat Company told me he had a busy Monday but Tuesday was slower.

Brooklyn Hat Co felts selling strongly for Fall16

Coeur and ALT were stranded on the buyer desert that is the huge penthouse event space of the California Market Center. It was very quiet up there. The penthouse space is only ever full for the LA Textile Show. The space is massive which tends to diffuse whatever energy is created. I think they should switch the smaller showcases to the more cozy and attractive 10th floor, 10B Loft. 10B Loft is about a third the size of the Penthouse and would create a significantly more intimate setting.

Coeur has suffered over the past two or three seasons from a lack of a permanent home (it was at the Alexandria Hotel last season) and most significantly from no longer sharing the 13th floor space with Brand Assembly. Coeur’s accessories and Brand Assembly contemporary apparel complimented each other nicely and fed buyers from one to the other. Coeur was squeezed out by Brand Assembly’s expansion.

The only eye catcher for me at Coeur was Mansi Shah, the namesake brand of New York artist, you guessed it, Mansi Shah. The print focused accessories and caps fuse the subtly innovative prints with a clean, hip mix of color and style, and are well priced.

Mansi Shah from New York

We are told that the economy is doing better. The unemployment rate is down and there is even talk that there is sustainable wages growth on the horizon. Retail should be doing significantly better. But it isn’t. The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report released March 15 reported that seasonally adjusted sales in February contracted month-over-month with January revised downward.

Continued softness in the retail sector is naturally reaching back to the wholesale market. I am hearing that business at the Fall16 trade shows has been choppy. In my February article, US Economy in 2016 – Steady As She Goes?, I detailed the reasons why I thought 2016 would be a steady year. I still think that a year with some positive momentum is how we will look back on 2016.

It is four months until the swimwear and resort trade shows in Miami and five months until the breaking of Spring17 collections in Las Vegas. I am looking forward to seeing where we are at as an industry should our current slow but steady economic momentum continue or even pick up.

Paul Brindley
Principal Adviser
paul brindley consults

Posted by Paul Brindley

on August 07, 2015

in Blog, Fashion

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I Don’t Want To Say I Told You So – Mid-Year Economic Forecast: Signs of Strength Tempered With Notes of Caution

In short, 2015 has been a very choppy economic year on many levels. The stock market has been swinging wildly, the job market is still soft, wage growth is non-existent, retailers are struggling badly, the negative effects of international events have been a drag and the bizarre inverse relationship between the health of the economy and the effects of the prospect of a Reserve Bank interest rate rise is ever more evident. I mean how is it that the Reserve Bank thinks the economy is strong enough to consider an interest rate rise but even the consideration of a rise is forcing the stock market down?

The market will likely react very negatively in the short-term and continue to perform poorly over the long-term. Some pundits are claiming that the market may view a rate hike as positive for the stock market because it signals that the Fed believes the economy is sound. I disagree.

The research presented in Invest With The Fed shows that long-term stock market performance has been dramatically better in expansive monetary policy environments than in restrictive monetary policy environments. Expansive monetary environments are defined as those periods during which the Fed is lowering rates. Alternatively, restrictive monetary environments are when the Fed is raising rates.

Over a 48-year period from 1966 through 2013, the S&P 500 (SPY) returned 15.18% during expansive periods and only 5.89% during restrictive periods. The Fed was expansive and restrictive about the same amount of time. One of the most interesting findings of our research is that stock market returns are not as correlated with the level of interest rates (whether rates are high or low) as they are with the direction of interest rates (whether rates are trending up or down).

The only point I would argue with is with the prospects for retail in California. I think we are going to play out a weak retail year. My discussions with independent retailers in the greater Los Angeles area reveal an unhappy retail environment. There have been too many very slow days this year. With lack of quality jobs out there and virtually no wage growth for those with jobs, it is impossible for there to be a significant uptick in retail activity unless we go back to the very bad old days of shopping on plastic.

Finance

By Alison A. Nieder | Thursday, July 9, 2015

California’s economic outlook for the remainder of the year is good, but it’s not exactly time to pop the champagne cork because the forecast is served with a helping of caution.

A recent economic report by the UCLA Anderson School of Management showed strong job recovery across the U.S. and in California and forecast increased growth in construction, business investment and consumer demand.

“I think things are on solid footing,” said Esmael Adibi, the director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University.

The year got off to a slow start, due to several factors, including the work slowdown and chassis shortage during contract negotiations at West Coast ports, which left holiday merchandise stranded on cargo ships. But Adibi said in recent years, the first quarter has been typically been slow.

“Our first quarter for the last 10 years has been lower than what should have been,” he said. “Barring any unexpected events, we think the remainder of [this] year is going to show strong growth in terms of real GDP.”

Events such as the Greek financial crisis threaten to affect the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year, but with no such impediments, Adibi said, the country and the state could see job growth continue.

“That suggests that job creation, which has been relatively strong for the U.S. and California, is going to continue to be strong,” he said. “Job creation is the most important factor affecting California’s economy and consumer spending, retail and manufacturing.”

The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. (LAEDC) pegged the employment forecast as flat for nondurable goods in its recent “Los Angeles: People Industry and Jobs 2014–2019” report.

But Ilse Metchek, president of the California Fashion Association (CFA), said the LAEDC’s employment numbers don’t paint the full picture of the apparel industry’s economic health.

“You really can’t talk about the industry as a monolith,” she said.

The state’s employment numbers for apparel manufacturing are down, but the value of imported goods is significantly improved.

“In terms of apparel and textile sales [and the] value of shipments in the LA region, we are above 2010 and 2011 levels—and 2011 was our biggest year,” Metchek said. “It’s not made here, [but] it is part of the industry [and] it is not reflected in the employment numbers.”

Retail rebound?

Traditionally, summer in California has been strong for the state’s retailers, who typically benefit from tourism spending, Chapman’s Adibi said.

“It all goes back to the broader economy,” he said. As the job picture improves, people will have more discretionary income to spend on travel and tourism activities.

“Tourism should be very strong this year,” he said. “The only negative is foreign tourism is not going to be as strong because the dollar is strong. We’re not expecting as many foreign tourists. They will still come—but not as many as you would hope for.”

Still, more discretionary income overall points to good prospects for California retail.

“When it comes to the retail sector, there is some good news,” Adibi said. In addition to a better job market, consumers have also reduced their debt load, and there’s the “positive wealth effect” of a strong stock market and higher home prices, Adibi said.

“People feel good when they’re a little bit wealthier,” he said.

Plus, the ongoing low gas prices promise to also have a favorable effect on retail spending.

“We have not fully seen the benefit of lower gas prices in terms of shopping,” Adibi said. “I think that’s going to kick in as people realize gas prices are not going to spike back up.”

The only negative Adibi noted was the “anemic wage growth.”

“Even those people who have had jobs haven’t seen a significant raise,” he said, but added, “I think the positives are going to offset this negative, and consumer spending should be relatively strong for the remainder of the year, which should help the retail sector.”

A recent report by real estate investment commercial real estate brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap found that commercial real estate developers are accelerating the timeline on several projects in response to “heightened demand” and pre-leasing commitments are “above 80 percent, indicative of pent-up demand from retailers seeking premium space.”

But according to CFA’s Metchek, some of that demand is coming from non-traditional and start-up retailers. Online retailers are looking for go “clicks to bricks” to drum up additional sales, she said.

“You have the malls opening up their leasing space to start-up companies—not just legacy brands—because they need people to fill the space,” she said.

The retail sector is very fractured, Metchek said, adding that the bricks-and-mortar retailers who are faring the best are those with a “significant online following that brings [shoppers] back into the store.”

New retailers—such as H&M’s minimalist sister brand, COS, which opened its second U.S. store late last year in Beverly Hills—see strong business because they’re the “new kid on the block,” she said.

But Metchek says she sees such success stories as “Peter to pay Paul.”

“That business is coming from somewhere else,” she said. “The business in Eagle Rock or Echo Park or Silver Lake is coming from Robertson. If somebody’s hot, somebody else is cold.”

What’s needed is a significant fashion shift to drive consumers to the store.

“There is nothing you need to buy now to make yourself feel current—even for a fashionista,” Metchek said. “When the contemporary consumer —these people who are fashion leaders—think of a new look, then you’ll see business turn around.”